I will be revising my full 2016/17 Supply and Demand tables but here is your raw data. I could not be happier with how we are positioned with this data now on the table. If you have been following recommendations I hope this is reassuring and takes a little stress off as you put your crop in the ground!

  • Lentils: About as close as you can get! We are well positioned against this.
  • Peas: Less than I thought, competition from Lentils in the Brown Soil Zone and over estimated what the Dark Soil Zone would do. We are well positioned against this record acreage.
  • Chick Peas: Missed this one, but Chick Peas are least accurate of surveys due to small acres. Could be very Bullish except that competing Lentils and Peas will hold Pulse prices back.
  • Barley: Missed it by 1% (sarcastic eye roll)! Barley market is all about quality not quantity anyway.
  • Canola: Home run! I said all winter acres could be down, but didn’t want to get too excited so I left my estimate alone since November. This is exactly what I hoped for and have set-up marketing decisions for. All other factors eliminated this will not give us enough Canola to meet demand this crop year. Holding all of that old crop this long is going to pay off!
  • Durum:  Must have been more Spring Wheat in the lighter soil to displace than I thought. This is not a good number, going to have to revisit Durum plans. If there is any number of concern to me it could be this one, but don’t panic.
  • Oats: Awesome! I was hoping to see this, but after last year’s reaction of not decreasing as much as price signaled I was skeptical.
  • All Wheat: Dark horse looks a little better. A little more than I thought, but pretty close and in the same direction. Canadian Wheat Stocks (other than Durum) will hit record lows this year and this acreage would suggest even lower next year! Still need to get through the US supply glut, but this will be supportive of Canadian prices.
  • Flax: Exactly what I wanted to see and thought could happen. Start thinking late crop year marketing for Flax.

 

Million Seeded Acres 2014-2015 DLN 2015-2016 DLN 2016 Estimate April 21 StatsCan Variance
Lentils 3.120 3.950 5.269 5.140 -0.129
Peas 3.985 3.680 4.806 4.280 -0.526
Chick Peas 0.195 0.125 0.162 0.100 -0.065
Barley 5.880 6.511 6.700 6.777 0.077
Canola 20.774 20.095 20.355 19.345 -1.010
Durum 4.750 5.820 5.675 6.120 0.445
Oats 2.823 3.403 3.150 2.972 -0.178
All Wheat 24.194 24.218 22.066 23.846 1.780
Flax 1.585 1.640 1.350 1.115 -0.235
Grand Total 67.306 69.442 69.533 69.632 0.099
Source: StatsCan and DLN AgVentures