2015 Crop Year Results

June 23rd, 2016|Categories: Barley, Canola, Durum, Field Peas, Flax, General, Lentils, Oats, Wheat|

You may or may not know that other than the client specific recommendations I also track the generally strategy and literal sales that I would make if it were my farm. I track 8 crops. I not only use this as a report card, but to really gut check the recommendations I make. I also [...]

StatsCan Data

April 21st, 2016|Categories: Barley, Canola, Durum, Field Peas, Flax, Lentils, Oats, Wheat|

I will be revising my full 2016/17 Supply and Demand tables but here is your raw data. I could not be happier with how we are positioned with this data now on the table. If you have been following recommendations I hope this is reassuring and takes a little stress off as you put your [...]

Canola Futures falling off a cliff?

March 2nd, 2016|Categories: Canola|

What was a nice calm sideways market up until 2 weeks ago is suddenly seeing the highest volatility of all grains. Not in a good way either. May Futures opened at $473mt just 7 days ago and closed today at $444.50! That hurts, especially when you have a whole lot of your crop with open [...]

Canola escapes “the box”

February 10th, 2016|Categories: Canola|

The ink wasn't even dry on Monday's article when a strong day for the Loonie broke the Canola chart through support into dangerously bearish ground. Each time a market approaches a level like this there is a decision that needs to be made, causing headlines of the day to look like they have artificially heavy weight [...]

Market Insight Meeting in Gravelbourg, SK

February 8th, 2016|Categories: Canola, General, Lentils|

Had a good turnout of over 20 farmers for my first local market insight meeting November 19, 2015. We covered a lot of ground including full Supply and Demand outlooks for Canola, Flax, Wheat, Durum, Lentils, and Peas. Check out these videos from the meeting. In the intro you will get a background on myself, [...]

2016 Canola Seeded Acre Watch

January 27th, 2016|Categories: Canola|

2016 seeded acres for Canola continues to be one of my highest priorities. You will recall that since early November I have been holding off on sales based on my thesis that strong Demand will bring the 2015/16 Ending Stocks down into a neutral range even with increased yields. I had thought that increased yields [...]

2016 Seeded Acres – Oilseeds could go in opposite directions in 2016/17

January 12th, 2016|Categories: Canola, Flax|

Every year between now and seeded acre survey release in late March or early April I make and revise new crop seeded acre estimates. I base my estimates on last years Gross Margin performance and this years projected Gross Margin performance at the time of rotation planning (ie: now). I take signals from my clients [...]

What does today’s StatsCan mean? – Canola

December 4th, 2015|Categories: Canola|

Not a whole lot......relative to expectations there were no huge surprises. The size of the Canola yield increase is bigger than expected and should get the most attention. They also slipped in an extra 255,000 seeded and 389,000 harvested acres. Net impact is almost 2 million mt more production than I had, 3 million more [...]

Ugly start to the week for Canola… so let’s look 6 months out instead.

November 23rd, 2015|Categories: Canola|

Canola futures are off to a tough start this week. Down $4.70mt with a low trade down close to $7mt. Canola futures have been weak of late, mostly in sympathy for Soybeans, but short term there isn't much in Canola to get Bullish about (longer term though I am more optimistic). Bearishness is easy to [...]

Flat Markets. Currency comparisons are big influence.

November 6th, 2015|Categories: Barley, Canola, Corn, Durum, Field Peas, Flax, Lentils, Oats, Soybeans, Wheat|

Grain price standoff continues. USDA will be out next week (Nov 10) with an updated WASDE report, no big changes are expected, Corn, Soybean, and Wheat markets all look to be going in with a fairly neutral bias (bearish assumptions priced in). This does set up the possibility of a fast move in either direction [...]

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