/Dwight Nichol

About Dwight Nichol

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So far Dwight Nichol has created 24 blog entries.

Market Insight Meeting in Gravelbourg, SK

February 8th, 2016|Categories: Canola, General, Lentils|

Had a good turnout of over 20 farmers for my first local market insight meeting November 19, 2015. We covered a lot of ground including full Supply and Demand outlooks for Canola, Flax, Wheat, Durum, Lentils, and Peas. Check out these videos from the meeting. In the intro you will get a background on myself, [...]

2016 Canola Seeded Acre Watch

January 27th, 2016|Categories: Canola|

2016 seeded acres for Canola continues to be one of my highest priorities. You will recall that since early November I have been holding off on sales based on my thesis that strong Demand will bring the 2015/16 Ending Stocks down into a neutral range even with increased yields. I had thought that increased yields [...]

2016 Seeded Acres – Oilseeds could go in opposite directions in 2016/17

January 12th, 2016|Categories: Canola, Flax|

Every year between now and seeded acre survey release in late March or early April I make and revise new crop seeded acre estimates. I base my estimates on last years Gross Margin performance and this years projected Gross Margin performance at the time of rotation planning (ie: now). I take signals from my clients [...]

China Limit Down!!!

January 7th, 2016|Categories: General|

For the second time this week stock markets around the world are panicking. Chinese stock exchange opened and promptly locked limit down (7%) in 29 minutes today. I am already bored of these stories relating to grain imports. It is my belief that China will eventually increase their imports when their economic issues create bargains [...]

What does today’s StatsCan mean? – Canola

December 4th, 2015|Categories: Canola|

Not a whole lot......relative to expectations there were no huge surprises. The size of the Canola yield increase is bigger than expected and should get the most attention. They also slipped in an extra 255,000 seeded and 389,000 harvested acres. Net impact is almost 2 million mt more production than I had, 3 million more [...]

Ugly start to the week for Canola… so let’s look 6 months out instead.

November 23rd, 2015|Categories: Canola|

Canola futures are off to a tough start this week. Down $4.70mt with a low trade down close to $7mt. Canola futures have been weak of late, mostly in sympathy for Soybeans, but short term there isn't much in Canola to get Bullish about (longer term though I am more optimistic). Bearishness is easy to [...]

Flat Markets. Currency comparisons are big influence.

November 6th, 2015|Categories: Barley, Canola, Corn, Durum, Field Peas, Flax, Lentils, Oats, Soybeans, Wheat|

Grain price standoff continues. USDA will be out next week (Nov 10) with an updated WASDE report, no big changes are expected, Corn, Soybean, and Wheat markets all look to be going in with a fairly neutral bias (bearish assumptions priced in). This does set up the possibility of a fast move in either direction [...]

Canola Sept Update

October 2nd, 2015|Categories: Canola|

StatsCan moved it’s yield today to 32.2bpa, I have been using 33.1. Their number won’t surprise anyone, and is actually at the lower end of expectations. Starting to consistently see production number estimates in the 15 million mt range now, that works back to a yield of 33.8bpa. It is certainly possible, but for now [...]

It is ok not to sell

September 24th, 2015|Categories: Barley, Canola, Corn, Durum, Field Peas, Flax, Lentils, Oats, Soybeans, Wheat|

I have been pretty quiet the past few weeks. For some of you (Wheat and Canola guys) it may feel like a long time since action has been taken. When and how active is specific to each of you, your crop mix, your risk tolerance, shipping needs, and the contracts you already have in place. [...]

El Nino – What will impact be on grain markets?

September 10th, 2015|Categories: Barley, Canola, Corn, Durum, Field Peas, Flax, General, Lentils, Oats, Soybeans, Wheat|

I have been asked this question several times now, and it is something that is mentioned in many commentaries. For the most part it is brought up as an unknown, but some are painting it as a bullish savior of grain prices. This is something that is so infrequent that impacts are hard to study. [...]

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