/2015

What does today’s StatsCan mean? – Canola

December 4th, 2015|Categories: Canola|

Not a whole lot......relative to expectations there were no huge surprises. The size of the Canola yield increase is bigger than expected and should get the most attention. They also slipped in an extra 255,000 seeded and 389,000 harvested acres. Net impact is almost 2 million mt more production than I had, 3 million more [...]

Ugly start to the week for Canola… so let’s look 6 months out instead.

November 23rd, 2015|Categories: Canola|

Canola futures are off to a tough start this week. Down $4.70mt with a low trade down close to $7mt. Canola futures have been weak of late, mostly in sympathy for Soybeans, but short term there isn't much in Canola to get Bullish about (longer term though I am more optimistic). Bearishness is easy to [...]

Flat Markets. Currency comparisons are big influence.

November 6th, 2015|Categories: Barley, Canola, Corn, Durum, Field Peas, Flax, Lentils, Oats, Soybeans, Wheat|

Grain price standoff continues. USDA will be out next week (Nov 10) with an updated WASDE report, no big changes are expected, Corn, Soybean, and Wheat markets all look to be going in with a fairly neutral bias (bearish assumptions priced in). This does set up the possibility of a fast move in either direction [...]

Canola Sept Update

October 2nd, 2015|Categories: Canola|

StatsCan moved it’s yield today to 32.2bpa, I have been using 33.1. Their number won’t surprise anyone, and is actually at the lower end of expectations. Starting to consistently see production number estimates in the 15 million mt range now, that works back to a yield of 33.8bpa. It is certainly possible, but for now [...]

It is ok not to sell

September 24th, 2015|Categories: Barley, Canola, Corn, Durum, Field Peas, Flax, Lentils, Oats, Soybeans, Wheat|

I have been pretty quiet the past few weeks. For some of you (Wheat and Canola guys) it may feel like a long time since action has been taken. When and how active is specific to each of you, your crop mix, your risk tolerance, shipping needs, and the contracts you already have in place. [...]

El Nino – What will impact be on grain markets?

September 10th, 2015|Categories: Barley, Canola, Corn, Durum, Field Peas, Flax, General, Lentils, Oats, Soybeans, Wheat|

I have been asked this question several times now, and it is something that is mentioned in many commentaries. For the most part it is brought up as an unknown, but some are painting it as a bullish savior of grain prices. This is something that is so infrequent that impacts are hard to study. [...]

StatsCan Revisions – Canola

September 3rd, 2015|Categories: Canola|

Canola futures are taking on the chin today, down 8.20-8.40 at the close. I have had a chance to go through numbers in more detail now, and market action probably has it right….sorry to bear bad news. StatsCan revised seeded and harvested acres for 2013 up by approx. 300,000 acres. Don’t think many had their [...]

June 30 StatsCan Seeded Acreage Canola Update

June 30th, 2015|Categories: Canola|

Actual seeded acres based on survey completed June 11 shows seeded acres for Canola at 19.84 million acres. This is an increase of 420 thousand acres from the March survey, and just 150 thousand acres off of my March number. I have reduced my yield from the 5 year average down to the 10 year [...]

Buy Out or buy back in with Call Options?

June 25th, 2015|Categories: Canola, Corn, Durum, Field Peas, Flax, Lentils, Soybeans, Wheat|

Hey everybody, sorry for being so quiet this week. We are down to cleaning and our last load of our move, by this time next week we will be settled in and I will be able to refocus. I will start today with a brief disclaimer for those specialty, cash crop, pulse, or durum growers. [...]

What does it cost to roll a contract?

June 16th, 2015|Categories: Wheat|

I have had this conversation several times over the past week. Many of you are holding old crop Spring Wheat contracts that were (might still be) priced against the July Futures contract. In most cases we intentionally set these contracts up this way with the expectation that we would price them out into any sort [...]

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